On a systemic level, there are two theories which can explain global politics and international relations with a high degree of veracity. For one, there is realism. If realism were to describe the present state as well as the trends pertaining to global politics and international relations, then it is possible that a “decoupling” of sorts is ongoing between the Western world and the Eastern world.
On the other hand, there is the theory of economic interdependence. Absolute idealists and logical holists like myself are proponents of economic interdependence theory. And given the positive trends which have occurred in the international system despite the downside which results from an American policy of global hegemony that is spurred by realism and a logical atomistic mindset, we are perhaps headed towards an international system and a world characterised largely by economic interdependence.
As a wonk, one is to observe whether Machiavelli and Hobbes and their realist outlook will be vindicated as the philosophical underpinnings of the international system, or whether Hegel and Kant and their theory of economic interdependence will prevail as the philosophical underpinnings of the international system over the next few years. Based on Hegel’s outlook of the international system, issues like war and inequality will be overcome naturally and by natural processes because of the human inclination towards interconnection and interdependence.
Progress is also a natural phenomenon in Kant’s view, despite the nefarious actions of a handful of neocons as well as their accomplices in the Biden Administration. Moreover, one would assume that corporations and banks in the United States would want in on the rising productivity and growth rates in the Eastern world.
To a large extent, the Biden Administration has advanced a realist outlook towards the world and towards the international system, despite their false and misleading charm. Realism then leads to high gas prices, inflation, and supply chain issues. Karma then kicks in, and the progressive caucus in Congress as well as Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema will stymie his agenda, thus leading to a potential Republican upsurge in 2022 and 2024. Nancy Pelosi will push for a vote on programs that were once tigers but are now pussy cats, but the votes and the push may lead to a dead end in the U.S. Senate.
Also, what may foreshadow a Republican upsurge in 2022 and 2024 is what occurred in Virginia this past Tuesday, where the Governorship of the state of Virginia flipped from Democrat to Republican. In a way, Virginia’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday was the first of a set of referendums that will take place against Joe Biden, despite the fact that since the year 1964, the party which wins the governorship in Virginia is always the party which is opposite of the party that won the presidency the previous year. Whether the results of Tuesday’s election in Virginia fits with this pattern or can be explained by something deeper is something worthy of study. Whether the moving parts of the international system end up fraying or whether they come together is something worthy of observation and analysis.