Wait and See

Washington is now heading into Thanksgiving break, knowing full well the issue which is at the heart of the four-year transition period between a 30-year imperial and hegemonic experience and a post-imperial and post-hegemonic experience. Celebration and hoopla over the passage of an infrastructure bill and a spending bill which 7 out of 10 Americans dismiss as irrelevant to their lives is merely a distraction from the core issue that is at the heart of this four-year transition period, which now has only three years remaining. Moreover, the infrastructure bill sent from the Senate to the House – as well as the spending bill which has now been sent from the House to the Senate – are essentially watered-down versions of bills and projects which 7 out of 10 Americans have dismissed as irrelevant to their lives.

            Thus, the decision and strategy behind Joe Biden’s reckoning with the core issue that is at the heart of the transition from a 30-year imperial and hegemonic experience to a post-imperial and post-hegemonic experience is to ‘beat around the bush’ with two bills that are watered-down and are dismissed as irrelevant by 7 out of 10 Americans. Arguably, that is not a winning strategy heading into midterm elections in 2022 and especially after the referendum which took place against his presidency in Virginia this month.

            A winning strategy would consist of implementing a transitional justice mechanism consisting of accountability, transparency, as well as truth and reconciliation after a 30-year imperial and hegemonic experience which violated international rules and norms. We now have to wait and see whether the Biden strategy shifts from a ‘beating around the bush’ strategy to an accountability and transparency strategy with three years left in this transition period. The entire first year of the transition period between the 30-year imperial and hegemonic period and the post-imperial and post-hegemonic period has been spent on ‘beating around the bush’ with two bills that are both watered-down and dismissed by 7 out of 10 Americans as irrelevant to their lives. Now, we have to wait and see whether the strategy shifts with three years remaining.

            Three years is a lot of time in politics. Anything can happen in the span of three years, and given that we are in a transition period, one can perhaps anticipate a certain degree of economic, political, and social turbulence in the midst of what is now a three-year period. Perhaps the rationale behind the infrastructure bill and the spending bill was that the passage of these bills would mitigate the economic, political, and social turbulence associated with the four-year transition period. We will have to wait and see whether these two bills are good enough and strong enough to mitigate economic, political, and social turbulence for another three years. The question is what will Biden do for another three years after having his entire decision-making rationale and strategy revolve around two watered-down bills that 7 out of 10 Americans reject in the first year of a four-year transition period. As mentioned before, we will have to simply wait and see at this point.

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