In short, a more Sinocentric world system and a less Eurocentric world system is indeed the single most important and consequential phenomenon or trend of contemporary international affairs, aside from the rise of what is known as the “Global South.” It is also important to note that the world system is still Eurocentric due in large part to the United States, but this fact of international life may not endure forever. To borrow from the late Zbigniew Brzezinski:
“The more immediate risk of the ongoing dispersal of power is a potentially unstable global hierarchy. The United States is still preeminent but the legitimacy, effectiveness, and durability of its leadership is increasingly questioned worldwide because of the complexity of its internal and external challenges. Nevertheless, in every significant and tangible dimension of traditional power – military, technological, economic, and financial – America is still peerless. It has by far the largest single national economy, the greatest financial influence, the most advanced technology, a military budget larger than that of all other states combined, and armed forces both capable of rapid deployment abroad and actively deployed around the world. This reality may not endure for very long but it is still the current fact of international life.”
But a lot has changed since Brzezinski wrote this approximately twelve years ago. Since then, there has been “a historical acceleration in the changing distribution of global power.” That changing distribution in global power and the manner in which it accelerated over the course of the last decade or so is now reflected in the manner by which current events are playing out. History also tells us the key factor in Western decline. To borrow from Brzezinski yet again: “The fact that the West remained globally dominant during the twentieth century should not obscure the fact that conflicts within the West undermined its once-dominant position.”
And as we mentioned before, the rise of China and the decline of the West is coupled with yet another global phenomenon or trend, namely, the rise of what is known as the “Global South.” As Brzezinski wrote: “The ongoing dispersal of global power is furthered by the emergence of a volatile phenomenon: the worldwide political awakening of populations until recently politically passive or repressed.” Both technology and a youth bulge are the key drivers behind the rise of the “Global South” as of late. The rich, powerful, those who wield authority, and the privileged are now facing a kind of resentment from the global youth and global masses that is unmatched in the history of mankind. In essence, mankind has been undergoing a “global political awakening” that stretches over the last couple of centuries, coinciding with the broader phenomenon that is decolonization. As Brzezinski wrote: “Over the course of two centuries, the revolution in mass communications and the gradual spread of literacy, especially among the growing concentration of urban residents, transformed individual political awakening into a mass phenomenon.”
This global political awakening is also quite radical or perhaps even religious in essence. Religion and nationalism “explain better what the young feel while legitimating their thirst for retribution and revenge.” There are also phases of global political awakening. To borrow from Brzezinski yet again:
“In its very early phases, political awakening tends to be most impatient and prone to violence. Its passion is fueled by a deep sense of historically aggrieved self-righteousness. In addition, early political awakening is characterized by a focus on national, ethnic, and religious identity – especially identity defined by opposition to a detested external force rather than by abstract political concepts.”
In other words, today’s global political awakening is a poke or a jab or perhaps even an unleashing of fire and fury at the West. To borrow from Brzezinski yet again:
“In today’s postcolonial world, the newly politically awakened partake of a common historical narrative that interprets their relative deprivation, prolonged external domination, denial of self-dignity, and continued personal disadvantage as the collective legacy of Western domination. Its anticolonial sharp edge is aimed at the West, fed by still vivid memories of British, French, Portuguese, Spanish, Belgian, Dutch, Italian, and German colonialism.”
Nor is America immune from the wrath which emanates from this global political awakening. As Brzezinski rightly noted: “In Muslim countries of the Middle East, even despite the fascination of many young Muslims with American mass culture, the intense resentment against American military intrusion in the Middle East as well as its support of Israel is now seen also as an extension of Western imperialism and thus as a major source of their felt deprivation.”
Resentment towards the West can also easily transform into hostility and in turn undermine or delegitimize everything the West claims to have stood for. As Brzezinski wrote: “If such hostile views of the West were to become the universal mindset of the politically activated populations of the emerging countries, the more benign democratic values that the West was so hopefully propagating at the outset of the twenty-first century could become historically irrelevant.”
In turn, the systemic rivalry between America and China has an impact on what goes on around the world. The whole world is keeping track of it on a regular and consistent basis. Due to this systemic rivalry between America and China, it follows that the West as a power which once commanded and subjugated smaller nations unimpeded “is not finished, but its global supremacy is over.” How America performs as a nation and society is also important in determining the outcomes of the West’s systemic rivalry with China. Nevertheless, China is now the “alternative” to the United States, both geopolitically and ideologically, largely because there is an increased potential or possibility that the American system becomes “widely viewed as an irrelevant model.” Europe is already irrelevant. Therefore, the “legacy” of the West hinges entirely on “the self-revitalization of America” as Brzezinski argued.
Adam A. Azim 