The Post-America Scramble

And as a result of a systemic rivalry having arisen between America on one hand and the Sino-Russian alliance on the other hand, we are now in a “post-hegemonic era” as certain scholars and thinkers have dubbed it. Or as Brzezinski called it, a “Post-America Scramble.” But America is not accustomed to having a peer competitor, nor is America accustomed to the concept of a balance of power after having the balance of power suspended soon after the end of the 20^th century Cold War. Thus, the adjustment to a novel global reality on the part of the United States will be difficult and perhaps even painful. 

We are already seeing the attributes or characteristics of a “Post-America Scramble” manifest themselves on the international scene. To borrow from Brzezinski:

“In the absence of a recognized leader, the resulting uncertainty is likely to increase tensions among competitors and inspire self-serving behavior. Thus, international cooperation is more likely to decline, with some powers seeking to promote exclusive regional arrangements as alternative frameworks of stability for the enhancement of their own interests. Historical contenders may vie more overtly, even with the use of force, for regional preeminence. Some weaker states may find themselves in serious jeopardy, as new power realignments emerge in response to major geopolitical shifts in the global distribution of power. The promotion of democracy might yield to the quest for enhanced national security based on varying fusions of authoritarianism, nationalism, and religion.” 

The “Post-America Scramble” and how it affects the national interests and objectives of all countries is front and center on everyone’s minds in international society. But given that no one has the capabilities to inherit what was once America’s role as the global leader and hegemon, the “Post-America Scramble” coincides with a “post-hegemonic era.” It is also highly unlikely that the competing powers in a post-hegemonic era will cooperate with one another. Each will pursue what they perceive as their own national interests and objectives on the international stage. 

The number one beneficiary of the “Post-America Scramble” and a post-hegemonic era is China, given that this new era has led to a global redistribution of power which benefits China. But a downturn in the overall international system would not benefit China. To develop economically and socially even further, China seeks a stable international system, which means a stable United States, given that the United States long served as the anchor of the international system. And while it may never assume the role of global leader or global hegemon, China is on track towards becoming the world’s foremost economic power. China already surpasses the United States in terms of number of billionaires. 

Nor is China in any hurry to assume the global position the United States once held. The focus for China is continued economic and social development. It is also important to note that the turning point which then led to the “Post-America Scramble” and the post-hegemonic era was the global financial crisis triggered by the United States approximately fifteen years ago. China’s rise took off and accelerated soon after the global financial crisis. But given the atmosphere and nature of the international environment at the moment, China’s continued rise faces a number of challenges and obstacles. For one, China faces a great deal of opposition to its rise, not just from the West, but from countries in its own region such as Japan and others. Second, China’s geography means that it does not have the advantages which the United States had during its rise. Third, China’s rise depends on the stability of the international system at a time when the international system is actually fraying and falling apart. The international system which China depends on for its continued growth and rise “could be in jeopardy if a post-America scramble generates a worldwide inclination toward a short-term but intense assertion of national interests at a time when the need for global cooperation is greater than ever.” Like all other things, China’s continued ascendancy and rise is a paradoxical one.