We often mistake the congressional midterm elections in America as the first major referendum on a president’s performance soon after they are elected. But as many in the media sphere have highlighted already, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and in my home state of Virginia are actually the first referenda that take place on a president’s performance soon after they are elected. Congressional midterm elections take place two years after a president’s election, whereas the elections which will take place tomorrow in New Jersey, Virginia, and even in New York are taking place exactly a year in. A year in is also a good marker for us to chime in and take stock of everything. We did not really chime in and take stock of everything for about seven months out of this one-year period since Trump got elected. So this will be the second or third time in the span of about nine months that we actually chime in and take stock of everything since Trump got elected for a second time.
What is perhaps most important to keep in mind when we analyze not only this election that is taking place tomorrow in New Jersey and New York and here in Virginia but also the election that got Trump elected a year ago is that these elections are taking place and have taken place in what is essentially a power vacuum or void. And what do we mean by that? What we mean is that when the neoconservative and neoliberal order and status quo of affairs collapsed during the whole Biden ordeal and perhaps even before the whole Biden ordeal, there were really only two major actors or forces on the political and social scene and in the political and social landscape who could fill the power vacuum or void. One was of course Donald Trump, who ended up winning the presidency for a second time a year ago. And the other was Bernie Sanders. Take any real or legitimate poll and metric and not the phony ones we always have shoved down our throats by the corporate media, and it will tell you that Bernie Sanders beats out Donald Trump by at least 20 points without even a semblance of a doubt.
And for the most part, the elections tomorrow will be framed as a referendum on Trump as an individual and personality. But what we overlook is that in Virginia, the winning candidate has always been from the party that is opposite to the one which won the White House the year prior at least since 1964. So unless some sort of political earthquake happens tomorrow in Virginia, it is more than likely that the Democrat – Abigail Spanberger – will become governor in Virginia tomorrow. It has been said that the race in New Jersey is far closer than the one in Virginia. But it is perhaps likely that the Democrat – Mikie Sherrill – will win in New Jersey as well, based on the major polling that has been done.
What is perhaps most intriguing is New York’s mayoral election, and for a number of reasons. For one, the likely winner tomorrow will be a 33 or 34 year-old Muslim Indian who was born in Uganda and came to the United States when he was a kid. But aside from his peculiar and unique identity, he is very much a creation of Bernie Sanders. It is not Zohran Mamdani who is the indication of where the country is heading. Rather, it is Bernie Sanders who was the indication of where this country was going all along, and Bernie Sanders gave Mamdani both the proverbial wink and nod and the green light to just go for it. Just do it. Give everyone the middle finger per se. And virtually the whole country injected themselves into New York’s mayoral race, given just how interesting and intriguing it is. Not to mention that more than 80 percent of the country believes we are in the midst of either a major crisis or problem and more than 70 percent believes economic conditions are poor rather than good, which gives everyone all the more reason to chime in and take stock of everything.
Thus, it is all very interesting not only because of Mamdani, but it is interesting because it validates and affirms what has been going on all along despite all the diversions and distractions, which is that ever since the collapse of the neoconservative and neoliberal order and status quo of affairs, it was really all about whether Trump or Bernie would fill the power vacuum or void. And New York shows us that it doesn’t necessarily have to be Trump who fills the power vacuum or void. In both 2020 and 2024, Democrats decided that it would be Trump who fills the void. But New York City decided to carve its own path forward and “Run like Zohran” per se after all the monstrosities and disappointments the country experienced during this one-year period since Trump got elected for a second time. It was all very much framed in two basic ways: a referendum against Trump as an individual and personality, and a referendum against the poisoning of both state and society at the hands of billionaires like Trump and Musk and all the other billionaires who have stuck their dirty noses and dirty hands into the current administration in Washington and have bought influence over Trump. And it seems as though this particular framing has been effective by Bernie and Mamdani and the like. It does the job, as we see in the first referendum on Trump’s second go. Pandering to billionaires is no longer a winning strategy in government and politics. It might just be the case that one would be better off if they were to just simply “Run like Zohran” or even Bernie Sanders or AOC.
Adam A. Azim 